Finance

LINC Move Probability $21.24 -0.38 (-1.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
69.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($22.30) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
42.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.63x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.2%
$18.65 — $23.83

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-42.4% to -37.3%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -39.8% -37.3% to -32.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -32.2% to -27.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -27.1% to -22.0%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -24.6% -22.0% to -17.0%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -17.0% to -11.9%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) -11.9% to -6.8%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) -9.3% -6.8% to -1.7%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) -1.7% to +3.4%: 101 occurrences (19.9%) +3.4% to +8.5%: 98 occurrences (19.3%) 5.9% +8.5% to +13.6%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) +13.6% to +18.6%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) +18.6% to +23.7%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) 21.2% +23.7% to +28.8%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +28.8% to +33.9%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +33.9% to +39.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 36.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 69.9% 42.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 21.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.67) and kurtosis (16.28).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 68.9% 34.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 70.7% 43.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (307 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 51.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 36.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 39.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-30% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +17.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +39.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -42.4%