Finance

KRNT Move Probability $17.77 +0.22 (+1.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
55.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($18.66) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
28.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.97x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.2%
$15.61 — $19.93

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-33.8% to -29.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -31.6% -29.4% to -25.0%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -25.0% to -20.6%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -20.6% to -16.2%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -18.4% -16.2% to -11.8%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) -11.8% to -7.4%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) -7.4% to -3.0%: 98 occurrences (19.3%) -5.2% -3.0% to +1.4%: 91 occurrences (17.9%) +1.4% to +5.8%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) +5.8% to +10.2%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) 8.0% +10.2% to +14.6%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) +14.6% to +19.0%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +19.0% to +23.4%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) 21.2% +23.4% to +27.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +27.8% to +32.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +32.2% to +36.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 34.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 55.1% 28.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 15.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.26) and kurtosis (11.89).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 68.9% 34.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 57.8% 32.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (277 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 51.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 34.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 38.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-33% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +15.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +36.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -33.8%