Finance

KPRX Move Probability $2.33 -0.23 (-9.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
54.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.45) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
28.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.91x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.7%
$1.99 — $2.67

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-26.6% to -22.7%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -24.6% -22.7% to -18.7%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -18.7% to -14.8%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -14.8% to -10.8%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) -12.8% -10.8% to -6.9%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) -6.9% to -2.9%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) -2.9% to +1.0%: 91 occurrences (17.9%) -1.0% +1.0% to +4.9%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) +4.9% to +8.9%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) +8.9% to +12.8%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) 10.9% +12.8% to +16.8%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +16.8% to +20.7%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) +20.7% to +24.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 22.7% +24.7% to +28.6%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +28.6% to +32.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +32.5% to +36.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 34.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 54.1% 28.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 19.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.28) and kurtosis (10.77).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 74.0% 37.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 55.8% 34.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (224 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 62.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 39.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-36% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +36.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -26.6%