Finance

KODK Move Probability $9.33 +0.34 (+3.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
69.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($9.80) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
36.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.92x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±15.5%
$7.88 — $10.78

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-31.6% to -25.8%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -28.7% -25.8% to -20.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -20.0% to -14.2%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) -14.2% to -8.4%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) -11.3% -8.4% to -2.5%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) -2.5% to +3.3%: 107 occurrences (21.1%) +3.3% to +9.1%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) 6.2% +9.1% to +14.9%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) +14.9% to +20.7%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +20.7% to +26.5%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) 23.6% +26.5% to +32.3%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +32.3% to +38.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +38.1% to +43.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 41.0% +43.9% to +49.7%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +49.7% to +55.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +55.5% to +61.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 58.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 69.9% 36.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 24.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.08) and kurtosis (9.94).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 75.4% 37.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 79.2% 44.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (154 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 66.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 33.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 51.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-49% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +21.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +61.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -31.6%