Finance

JENA Move Probability $10.43 +0.01 (+0.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
0.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($10.95) at least once during 14 trading days.
Expiration Close Probability
0.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.00x
You are 1.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±0.5%
$10.37 — $10.49

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 299 historical windows (2025-07-24 to 2026-10-20). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-1.1% to -0.9%: 6 occurrences (2.0%) -1.0% -0.9% to -0.7%: 5 occurrences (1.7%) -0.7% to -0.5%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) -0.5% to -0.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -0.4% -0.3% to -0.2%: 7 occurrences (2.3%) -0.2% to +0.0%: 193 occurrences (64.5%) +0.0% to +0.2%: 37 occurrences (12.4%) 0.1% +0.2% to +0.4%: 10 occurrences (3.3%) +0.4% to +0.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +0.6% to +0.8%: 14 occurrences (4.7%) 0.7% +0.8% to +0.9%: 4 occurrences (1.3%) +0.9% to +1.1%: 2 occurrences (0.7%) +1.1% to +1.3%: 6 occurrences (2.0%) 1.2% +1.3% to +1.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1.5% to +1.7%: 8 occurrences (2.7%) +1.7% to +1.9%: 6 occurrences (2.0%) 1.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 0.0% 0.0% Model-free reality across 299 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 100.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (7.4) and kurtosis (101.15).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 0.0% 0.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 0.0% 0.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (26 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 2.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 0.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 0.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-67% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +0.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -0.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +1.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -1.1%