Finance

JBHT Move Probability $236.74 -36.40 (-13.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
3.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($248.58) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
1.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.43x
You are 2.4x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±2.3%
$231.22 — $242.26

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 520 historical windows (2024-08-19 to 2026-09-16). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-13.3% to -11.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -12.2% -11.1% to -8.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -8.9% to -6.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -6.7% to -4.5%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -5.6% -4.5% to -2.2%: 41 occurrences (7.9%) -2.2% to -0.0%: 210 occurrences (40.4%) -0.0% to +2.2%: 191 occurrences (36.7%) 1.1% +2.2% to +4.4%: 57 occurrences (11.0%) +4.4% to +6.6%: 7 occurrences (1.3%) +6.6% to +8.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 7.7% +8.8% to +11.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +11.0% to +13.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +13.3% to +15.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 14.4% +15.5% to +17.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +17.7% to +19.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +19.9% to +22.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 21.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 3.3% 1.3% Model-free reality across 520 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 45.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.67) and kurtosis (14.16).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 3.6% 1.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 3.1% 2.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (96 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 37.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 60.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.1%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+62% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +2.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -2.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +22.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -13.3%