Finance

IZEA Move Probability $2.33 -0.08 (-3.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
45.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.45) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
26.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.72x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.2%
$2.02 — $2.64

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-22.4% to -17.3%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -19.9% -17.3% to -12.2%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) -12.2% to -7.2%: 93 occurrences (18.3%) -7.2% to -2.1%: 105 occurrences (20.7%) -4.6% -2.1% to +3.0%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) +3.0% to +8.1%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) +8.1% to +13.2%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) 10.6% +13.2% to +18.3%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) +18.3% to +23.4%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +23.4% to +28.4%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) 25.9% +28.4% to +33.5%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +33.5% to +38.6%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +38.6% to +43.7%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 41.2% +43.7% to +48.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +48.8% to +53.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +53.9% to +59.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 56.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 45.3% 26.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 23.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.83) and kurtosis (6.22).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 71.1% 35.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 20.5% 9.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (205 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 55.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 34.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 29.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-38% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +20.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -14.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +59.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -22.4%