Finance

IQMX Move Probability $9.38 +0.13 (+1.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to IQMX Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
62.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($9.85) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
28.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.22x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±18.7%
$7.63 — $11.13

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 64 historical windows (2026-07-02 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-23.0% to -20.4%: 4 occurrences (6.2%) -21.7% -20.4% to -17.7%: 3 occurrences (4.7%) -17.7% to -15.0%: 4 occurrences (6.2%) -15.0% to -12.3%: 7 occurrences (10.9%) -13.6% -12.3% to -9.6%: 5 occurrences (7.8%) -9.6% to -6.9%: 4 occurrences (6.2%) -6.9% to -4.3%: 7 occurrences (10.9%) -5.6% -4.3% to -1.6%: 5 occurrences (7.8%) -1.6% to +1.1%: 4 occurrences (6.2%) +1.1% to +3.8%: 2 occurrences (3.1%) 2.4% +3.8% to +6.5%: 5 occurrences (7.8%) +6.5% to +9.2%: 1 occurrences (1.6%) +9.2% to +11.8%: 2 occurrences (3.1%) 10.5% +11.8% to +14.5%: 5 occurrences (7.8%) +14.5% to +17.2%: 3 occurrences (4.7%) +17.2% to +19.9%: 3 occurrences (4.7%) 18.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 62.5% 28.1% Model-free reality across 64 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 31.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.61) and kurtosis (4.5).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 79.4% 39.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 79.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 35.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 54.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-55% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -4.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -18.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +19.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -23.0%