Finance

IFRX Move Probability $1.56 +0.01 (+0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
79.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.64) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
37.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.09x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±26.8%
$1.14 — $1.98

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-58.5% to -47.8%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -53.1% -47.8% to -37.0%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -37.0% to -26.2%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -26.2% to -15.4%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) -20.8% -15.4% to -4.7%: 85 occurrences (16.7%) -4.7% to +6.1%: 141 occurrences (27.8%) +6.1% to +16.9%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) 11.5% +16.9% to +27.6%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +27.6% to +38.4%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +38.4% to +49.2%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) 43.8% +49.2% to +59.9%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +59.9% to +70.7%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +70.7% to +81.5%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 76.1% +81.5% to +92.3%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +92.3% to +103.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +103.0% to +113.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 108.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 79.1% 37.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 32.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-3.5) and kurtosis (50.6).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 85.5% 42.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 78.3% 41.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (221 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 113.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 70.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 79.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-38% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +39.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -24.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +113.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -58.5%