Finance

HRTX Move Probability $0.34 -0.02 (-5.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
72.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.35) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
33.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.14x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±22.0%
$0.26 — $0.41

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-57.6% to -50.7%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -54.2% -50.7% to -43.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -43.9% to -37.0%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -37.0% to -30.1%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -33.5% -30.1% to -23.2%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -23.2% to -16.3%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) -16.3% to -9.4%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) -12.9% -9.4% to -2.5%: 85 occurrences (16.7%) -2.5% to +4.4%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +4.4% to +11.3%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) 7.8% +11.3% to +18.2%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) +18.2% to +25.0%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) +25.0% to +31.9%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) 28.5% +31.9% to +38.8%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +38.8% to +45.7%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +45.7% to +52.6%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) 49.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 72.4% 33.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 37.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.85) and kurtosis (29.45).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 82.4% 41.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 66.5% 28.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (173 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 93.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 101.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 69.4%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +25.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -29.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +52.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -57.6%