Finance

HRGN Move Probability $2.06 -0.14 (-6.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
59.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.16) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
23.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.48x
You are 2.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±19.4%
$1.66 — $2.46

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 487 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-28.0% to -22.0%: 18 occurrences (3.7%) -25.0% -22.0% to -16.0%: 32 occurrences (6.6%) -16.0% to -10.0%: 59 occurrences (12.1%) -10.0% to -4.0%: 109 occurrences (22.4%) -7.0% -4.0% to +2.0%: 122 occurrences (25.1%) +2.0% to +7.9%: 61 occurrences (12.5%) +7.9% to +13.9%: 20 occurrences (4.1%) 10.9% +13.9% to +19.9%: 24 occurrences (4.9%) +19.9% to +25.9%: 13 occurrences (2.7%) +25.9% to +31.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 28.9% +31.9% to +37.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +37.9% to +43.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +43.9% to +49.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 46.9% +49.9% to +55.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +55.9% to +61.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +61.9% to +67.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 64.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 59.1% 23.8% Model-free reality across 487 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 23.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.64) and kurtosis (12.99).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 80.1% 40.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 62.3% 27.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (252 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 82.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 58.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 61.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-29% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -3.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +17.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +67.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -28.0%