Finance

HRB Move Probability $47.82 -0.64 (-1.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
39.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($50.21) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
19.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.06x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.8%
$43.60 — $52.04

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-29.2% to -25.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -27.2% -25.2% to -21.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -21.1% to -17.1%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -17.1% to -13.0%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -15.0% -13.0% to -8.9%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -8.9% to -4.9%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) -4.9% to -0.8%: 127 occurrences (25.0%) -2.9% -0.8% to +3.2%: 123 occurrences (24.2%) +3.2% to +7.3%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) +7.3% to +11.4%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) 9.3% +11.4% to +15.4%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +15.4% to +19.5%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +19.5% to +23.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 21.5% +23.5% to +27.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +27.6% to +31.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +31.6% to +35.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 33.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 39.8% 19.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 5.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.49) and kurtosis (15.86).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 58.0% 29.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 50.9% 31.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (273 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 37.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 38.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 28.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +35.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -29.2%