Finance

HPP Move Probability $9.46 -0.01 (-0.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
66.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($9.93) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
25.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.58x
You are 2.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±15.9%
$7.96 — $10.96

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-35.3% to -29.1%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -32.2% -29.1% to -23.0%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) -23.0% to -16.9%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) -16.9% to -10.7%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) -13.8% -10.7% to -4.6%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) -4.6% to +1.6%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) +1.6% to +7.7%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) 4.6% +7.7% to +13.8%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) +13.8% to +20.0%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) +20.0% to +26.1%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 23.0% +26.1% to +32.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +32.3% to +38.4%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +38.4% to +44.5%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 41.5% +44.5% to +50.7%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +50.7% to +56.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +56.8% to +63.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 59.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 66.5% 25.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 35.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.01) and kurtosis (1.75).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 75.9% 37.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 69.5% 29.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (383 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 67.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 73.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 59.2%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -4.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +18.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -20.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +63.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -35.3%