Finance

HMR Move Probability $1.69 -0.05 (-2.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
60.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.77) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
27.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.24x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±26.9%
$1.24 — $2.14

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 406 historical windows (2025-02-20 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-55.2% to -43.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -49.3% -43.4% to -31.6%: 3 occurrences (0.7%) -31.6% to -19.8%: 43 occurrences (10.6%) -19.8% to -8.0%: 95 occurrences (23.4%) -13.9% -8.0% to +3.8%: 150 occurrences (36.9%) +3.8% to +15.5%: 50 occurrences (12.3%) +15.5% to +27.3%: 23 occurrences (5.7%) 21.4% +27.3% to +39.1%: 19 occurrences (4.7%) +39.1% to +50.9%: 8 occurrences (2.0%) +50.9% to +62.7%: 4 occurrences (1.0%) 56.8% +62.7% to +74.5%: 2 occurrences (0.5%) +74.5% to +86.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +86.3% to +98.1%: 2 occurrences (0.5%) 92.2% +98.1% to +109.9%: 4 occurrences (1.0%) +109.9% to +121.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +121.7% to +133.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 127.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 60.6% 27.1% Model-free reality across 406 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 26.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.39) and kurtosis (11.6).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 85.6% 42.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 59.0% 28.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (244 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 114.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 77.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 84.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-32% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -3.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +27.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +133.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -55.2%