Finance

HLSQ Move Probability $0.25 +0.02 (+11.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to HLSQ Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
61.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.26) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
24.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.49x
You are 2.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±40.2%
$0.15 — $0.35

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-89.2% to -68.8%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -79.0% -68.8% to -48.3%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) -48.3% to -27.8%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) -27.8% to -7.3%: 120 occurrences (23.6%) -17.6% -7.3% to +13.2%: 133 occurrences (26.2%) +13.2% to +33.6%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) +33.6% to +54.1%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 43.9% +54.1% to +74.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +74.6% to +95.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +95.1% to +115.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 105.3% +115.6% to +136.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +136.0% to +156.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +156.5% to +177.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 166.8% +177.0% to +197.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +197.5% to +217.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +217.9% to +238.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 228.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 61.8% 24.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 49.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-3.94) and kurtosis (53.79).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 90.3% 45.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 56.8% 20.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (220 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 170.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 145.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 95.6%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -12.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +22.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -57.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +238.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -89.2%