Finance

HL Move Probability $15.13 +0.12 (+0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to HL Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
19.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($15.89) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
11.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.66x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±4.2%
$14.51 — $15.76

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-16.9% to -14.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -15.8% -14.7% to -12.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -12.5% to -10.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -10.3% to -8.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -9.2% -8.2% to -6.0%: 12 occurrences (2.3%) -6.0% to -3.8%: 48 occurrences (9.2%) -3.8% to -1.6%: 77 occurrences (14.8%) -2.7% -1.6% to +0.5%: 136 occurrences (26.1%) +0.5% to +2.7%: 125 occurrences (24.0%) +2.7% to +4.9%: 47 occurrences (9.0%) 3.8% +4.9% to +7.1%: 37 occurrences (7.1%) +7.1% to +9.3%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) +9.3% to +11.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 10.3% +11.4% to +13.6%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +13.6% to +15.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +15.8% to +18.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 16.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 19.8% 11.9% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 8.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.18) and kurtosis (2.26).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 24.0% 12.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 17.9% 10.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (252 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 65.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 47.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 50.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-27% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +5.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -4.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +18.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -16.9%