Finance

HHS Move Probability $4.00 -0.20 (-4.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to HHS Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
30.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($4.20) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
16.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.91x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±15.2%
$3.39 — $4.61

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-30.8% to -23.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -27.1% -23.3% to -15.9%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -15.9% to -8.4%: 93 occurrences (18.3%) -8.4% to -1.0%: 144 occurrences (28.3%) -4.7% -1.0% to +6.5%: 175 occurrences (34.4%) +6.5% to +14.0%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) +14.0% to +21.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 17.7% +21.4% to +28.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +28.9% to +36.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +36.3% to +43.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 40.1% +43.8% to +51.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +51.2% to +58.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +58.7% to +66.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 62.4% +66.2% to +73.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +73.6% to +81.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +81.1% to +88.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 84.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 30.9% 16.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 4.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.88) and kurtosis (31.15).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 74.9% 37.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 28.2% 16.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (71 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 64.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 22.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 20.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-66% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +88.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -30.8%