Finance

HGTY Move Probability $15.54 +0.08 (+0.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to HGTY Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
50.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($16.32) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
27.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.86x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.2%
$14.27 — $16.81

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-19.2% to -16.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -17.8% -16.4% to -13.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -13.6% to -10.8%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -10.8% to -8.0%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -9.4% -8.0% to -5.1%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) -5.1% to -2.3%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) -2.3% to +0.5%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) -0.9% +0.5% to +3.3%: 77 occurrences (15.2%) +3.3% to +6.1%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) +6.1% to +8.9%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) 7.5% +8.9% to +11.7%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +11.7% to +14.5%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) +14.5% to +17.3%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) 15.9% +17.3% to +20.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +20.1% to +22.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +22.9% to +25.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 24.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 50.6% 27.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 11.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.14) and kurtosis (9.21).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 55.1% 27.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 47.1% 22.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (157 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 34.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 19.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 23.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-45% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +25.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -19.2%