Finance

HGBL Move Probability $1.28 +0.00 (+0.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
40.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.35) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
26.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.50x
You are 1.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±9.5%
$1.16 — $1.41

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-18.8% to -15.8%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -17.3% -15.8% to -12.7%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -12.7% to -9.7%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -9.7% to -6.7%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -8.2% -6.7% to -3.7%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) -3.7% to -0.6%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) -0.6% to +2.4%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) 0.9% +2.4% to +5.4%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) +5.4% to +8.4%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) +8.4% to +11.5%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) 10.0% +11.5% to +14.5%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) +14.5% to +17.5%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) +17.5% to +20.5%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 19.0% +20.5% to +23.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +23.6% to +26.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +26.6% to +29.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 28.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 40.2% 26.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 22.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.16) and kurtosis (3.92).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 60.9% 30.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 20.8% 14.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (106 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 40.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 22.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 21.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-44% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +29.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -18.8%