Finance

HFBL Move Probability $25.39 +0.39 (+1.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
24.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($26.65) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
22.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.05x
You are 1.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.2%
$24.06 — $26.71

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 507 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-20). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-17.1% to -14.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -15.8% -14.5% to -11.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -11.9% to -9.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -9.3% to -6.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -8.0% -6.8% to -4.2%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -4.2% to -1.6%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) -1.6% to +1.0%: 170 occurrences (33.5%) -0.3% +1.0% to +3.6%: 96 occurrences (18.9%) +3.6% to +6.2%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) +6.2% to +8.7%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) 7.4% +8.7% to +11.3%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +11.3% to +13.9%: 18 occurrences (3.6%) +13.9% to +16.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 15.2% +16.5% to +19.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +19.1% to +21.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +21.6% to +24.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 22.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 24.1% 22.9% Model-free reality across 507 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.9) and kurtosis (51.32).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 35.1% 17.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 45.2% 38.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (31 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 22.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 5.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 2.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-76% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -3.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +24.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -17.1%