Finance

HDRN Move Probability $0.74 +0.03 (+3.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
14.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.78) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
4.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
3.32x
You are 3.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.1%
$0.64 — $0.85

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 509 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-22). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-55.1% to -49.2%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -52.2% -49.2% to -43.2%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -43.2% to -37.3%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -37.3% to -31.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -34.3% -31.3% to -25.4%: 15 occurrences (2.9%) -25.4% to -19.4%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -19.4% to -13.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -16.4% -13.5% to -7.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -7.5% to -1.5%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) -1.5% to +4.4%: 376 occurrences (73.9%) 1.4% +4.4% to +10.4%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +10.4% to +16.3%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +16.3% to +22.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 19.3% +22.3% to +28.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +28.2% to +34.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +34.2% to +40.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 37.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 14.3% 4.3% Model-free reality across 509 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 41.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-3.19) and kurtosis (19.7).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 73.0% 36.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 45.9% 17.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (85 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 59.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 106.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 34.1%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+78% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +1.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -27.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +40.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -55.1%