Finance

HBAN Move Probability $15.82 -0.93 (-5.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
1.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($16.62) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
0.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
3.00x
You are 3.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±1.8%
$15.53 — $16.12

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 520 historical windows (2024-08-19 to 2026-09-16). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-11.4% to -9.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -10.7% -9.9% to -8.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -8.4% to -6.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -6.9% to -5.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -6.2% -5.4% to -3.9%: 8 occurrences (1.5%) -3.9% to -2.4%: 22 occurrences (4.2%) -2.4% to -0.9%: 83 occurrences (16.0%) -1.7% -0.9% to +0.6%: 208 occurrences (40.0%) +0.6% to +2.1%: 144 occurrences (27.7%) +2.1% to +3.6%: 42 occurrences (8.1%) 2.8% +3.6% to +5.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +5.1% to +6.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +6.6% to +8.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 7.3% +8.1% to +9.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +9.6% to +11.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +11.1% to +12.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 11.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 1.2% 0.4% Model-free reality across 520 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 69.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.26) and kurtosis (7.84).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 0.8% 0.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 0.7% 0.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (418 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 29.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 26.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 23.8%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +2.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -1.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +12.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -11.4%