Finance

HBAN Move Probability $15.82 -0.93 (-5.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
46.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($16.62) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
26.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.74x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.9%
$14.73 — $16.92

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 507 historical windows (2024-08-19 to 2026-09-16). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-16.5% to -14.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -15.5% -14.4% to -12.3%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -12.3% to -10.2%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -10.2% to -8.1%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -9.2% -8.1% to -6.0%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) -6.0% to -3.9%: 52 occurrences (10.3%) -3.9% to -1.8%: 51 occurrences (10.1%) -2.9% -1.8% to +0.3%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) +0.3% to +2.4%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) +2.4% to +4.5%: 51 occurrences (10.1%) 3.4% +4.5% to +6.6%: 53 occurrences (10.5%) +6.6% to +8.6%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) +8.6% to +10.7%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) 9.7% +10.7% to +12.8%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +12.8% to +14.9%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +14.9% to +17.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 16.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 46.5% 26.8% Model-free reality across 507 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 10.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.26) and kurtosis (7.84).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 47.9% 24.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 47.7% 28.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (407 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 29.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 26.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 23.8%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +9.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +17.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -16.5%