Finance

GWTI Move Probability $0.02 -0.00 (-1.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to GWTI Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
80.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.02) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
35.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.28x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±57.6%
$0.01 — $0.03

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 486 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-20). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-57.8% to -44.1%: 11 occurrences (2.3%) -51.0% -44.1% to -30.4%: 36 occurrences (7.4%) -30.4% to -16.7%: 76 occurrences (15.6%) -16.7% to -3.1%: 126 occurrences (25.9%) -9.9% -3.1% to +10.6%: 102 occurrences (21.0%) +10.6% to +24.3%: 44 occurrences (9.1%) +24.3% to +38.0%: 25 occurrences (5.1%) 31.1% +38.0% to +51.7%: 20 occurrences (4.1%) +51.7% to +65.3%: 9 occurrences (1.9%) +65.3% to +79.0%: 10 occurrences (2.1%) 72.2% +79.0% to +92.7%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +92.7% to +106.4%: 11 occurrences (2.3%) +106.4% to +120.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 113.2% +120.1% to +133.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +133.7% to +147.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +147.4% to +161.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 154.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 80.9% 35.4% Model-free reality across 486 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 49.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.74) and kurtosis (5.51).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 93.2% 46.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.7% 24.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (260 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 244.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 211.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 226.7%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -3.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +50.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -29.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +161.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -57.8%