Finance

GMED Move Probability $78.67 -0.31 (-0.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
46.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($82.61) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
27.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.66x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.1%
$70.76 — $86.59

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-20.6% to -16.3%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -18.4% -16.3% to -12.0%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) -12.0% to -7.7%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) -7.7% to -3.4%: 90 occurrences (17.7%) -5.6% -3.4% to +0.9%: 110 occurrences (21.7%) +0.9% to +5.2%: 93 occurrences (18.3%) +5.2% to +9.5%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) 7.3% +9.5% to +13.8%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) +13.8% to +18.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +18.1% to +22.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 20.2% +22.4% to +26.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +26.7% to +31.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +31.0% to +35.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 33.1% +35.2% to +39.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +39.5% to +43.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +43.8% to +48.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 46.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 46.1% 27.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.15) and kurtosis (48.46).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 62.8% 31.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 43.9% 26.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (312 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 42.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 29.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-31% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -9.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +48.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -20.6%