Finance

GH Move Probability $166.59 +4.07 (+2.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to GH Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
77.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($174.92) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
49.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.57x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.9%
$143.46 — $189.72

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-25.8% to -20.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -23.2% -20.5% to -15.2%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -15.2% to -9.9%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) -9.9% to -4.6%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) -7.2% -4.6% to +0.7%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) +0.7% to +6.0%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) +6.0% to +11.3%: 80 occurrences (15.7%) 8.7% +11.3% to +16.6%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) +16.6% to +21.9%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) +21.9% to +27.2%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) 24.6% +27.2% to +32.5%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) +32.5% to +37.8%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) +37.8% to +43.1%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 40.5% +43.1% to +48.4%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +48.4% to +53.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +53.7% to +59.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 56.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 77.6% 49.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 23.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.17) and kurtosis (6.21).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 72.5% 36.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 78.7% 51.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (319 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 58.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 48.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 50.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-18% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +4.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +31.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +59.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -25.8%