Finance

FWRG Move Probability $11.13 -0.84 (-7.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
66.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($11.69) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.19x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.8%
$9.71 — $12.56

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-29.1% to -25.3%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -27.2% -25.3% to -21.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -21.6% to -17.8%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -17.8% to -14.1%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) -16.0% -14.1% to -10.3%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -10.3% to -6.6%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) -6.6% to -2.8%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) -4.7% -2.8% to +0.9%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) +0.9% to +4.7%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) +4.7% to +8.4%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) 6.6% +8.4% to +12.2%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) +12.2% to +15.9%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) +15.9% to +19.7%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) 17.8% +19.7% to +23.4%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +23.4% to +27.2%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +27.2% to +31.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 29.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 66.7% 30.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 27.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.45) and kurtosis (6.2).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 70.3% 35.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 69.4% 30.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (389 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 54.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 47.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 43.0%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +15.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -15.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +31.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -29.1%