Finance

FWRD Move Probability $15.62 -0.15 (-1.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
65.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($16.40) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
40.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.63x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±19.8%
$12.52 — $18.72

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 509 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-22). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-62.2% to -55.0%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -58.6% -55.0% to -47.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -47.9% to -40.8%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -40.8% to -33.7%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -37.3% -33.7% to -26.6%: 15 occurrences (2.9%) -26.6% to -19.5%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -19.5% to -12.4%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) -15.9% -12.4% to -5.3%: 77 occurrences (15.1%) -5.3% to +1.8%: 89 occurrences (17.5%) +1.8% to +9.0%: 73 occurrences (14.3%) 5.4% +9.0% to +16.1%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) +16.1% to +23.2%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) +23.2% to +30.3%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) 26.7% +30.3% to +37.4%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +37.4% to +44.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +44.5% to +51.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 48.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 65.8% 40.3% Model-free reality across 509 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 30.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.53) and kurtosis (29.14).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 80.6% 40.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 50.4% 17.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (250 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 84.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 46.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 57.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-45% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +25.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -25.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +51.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -62.2%