Finance

FWONA Move Probability $83.67 -0.77 (-0.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
40.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($87.85) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
22.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.82x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.2%
$78.51 — $88.83

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-16.2% to -14.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -15.1% -14.0% to -11.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -11.9% to -9.7%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -9.7% to -7.5%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) -8.6% -7.5% to -5.3%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -5.3% to -3.2%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) -3.2% to -1.0%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) -2.1% -1.0% to +1.2%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +1.2% to +3.3%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) +3.3% to +5.5%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) 4.4% +5.5% to +7.7%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) +7.7% to +9.9%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +9.9% to +12.0%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) 11.0% +12.0% to +14.2%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +14.2% to +16.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +16.4% to +18.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 17.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 40.6% 22.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 19.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.04) and kurtosis (1.09).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 42.9% 21.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 36.3% 17.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (397 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 26.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 24.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 17.7%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +18.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -16.2%