Finance

FTH Move Probability $20.50 -0.26 (-1.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
75.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($21.53) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
37.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.99x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±32.1%
$13.93 — $27.07

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-42.8% to -22.1%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) -32.5% -22.1% to -1.5%: 181 occurrences (35.6%) -1.5% to +19.2%: 170 occurrences (33.5%) +19.2% to +39.9%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) 29.5% +39.9% to +60.5%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +60.5% to +81.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +81.2% to +101.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 91.6% +101.9% to +122.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +122.6% to +143.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +143.2% to +163.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 153.6% +163.9% to +184.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +184.6% to +205.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +205.3% to +225.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 215.6% +225.9% to +246.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +246.6% to +267.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +267.3% to +288.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 277.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 75.4% 37.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 7.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (4.43) and kurtosis (50.59).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 87.9% 44.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 73.8% 35.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (244 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 136.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 84.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 75.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-38% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +30.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -24.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +288.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -42.8%