Finance

FSK Move Probability $10.09 -0.06 (-0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
31.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($10.59) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
17.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.82x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.8%
$9.40 — $10.77

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-23.0% to -20.4%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -21.7% -20.4% to -17.8%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -17.8% to -15.1%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -15.1% to -12.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -13.8% -12.5% to -9.9%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -9.9% to -7.3%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) -7.3% to -4.7%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -6.0% -4.7% to -2.1%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) -2.1% to +0.5%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) +0.5% to +3.2%: 107 occurrences (21.1%) 1.8% +3.2% to +5.8%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) +5.8% to +8.4%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) +8.4% to +11.0%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) 9.7% +11.0% to +13.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +13.6% to +16.2%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +16.2% to +18.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 17.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 31.5% 17.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 5.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.32) and kurtosis (14.86).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 47.3% 23.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 29.6% 17.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (270 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 28.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 20.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 22.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-31% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -9.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +18.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -23.0%