Finance

FLNA Move Probability $0.66 -0.03 (-4.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
70.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.69) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.31x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±36.7%
$0.42 — $0.90

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-91.3% to -80.5%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -85.9% -80.5% to -69.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -69.7% to -58.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -58.9% to -48.0%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -53.4% -48.0% to -37.2%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -37.2% to -26.4%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -26.4% to -15.6%: 72 occurrences (14.2%) -21.0% -15.6% to -4.8%: 111 occurrences (21.9%) -4.8% to +6.1%: 124 occurrences (24.4%) +6.1% to +16.9%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) 11.5% +16.9% to +27.7%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) +27.7% to +38.5%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +38.5% to +49.3%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 43.9% +49.3% to +60.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +60.1% to +71.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +71.0% to +81.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 76.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 70.1% 30.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 78.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-11.98) and kurtosis (221.94).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 89.4% 44.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 63.2% 20.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (234 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 155.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 104.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 69.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-33% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -3.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +20.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -28.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +81.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -91.3%