Finance

FIRY Move Probability $11.74 +0.97 (+9.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
59.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($12.33) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
36.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.64x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±28.3%
$8.42 — $15.06

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 507 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-48.7% to -21.9%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -35.3% -21.9% to +4.8%: 298 occurrences (58.8%) +4.8% to +31.5%: 150 occurrences (29.6%) +31.5% to +58.3%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) 44.9% +58.3% to +85.0%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +85.0% to +111.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +111.8% to +138.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 125.1% +138.5% to +165.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +165.3% to +192.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +192.0% to +218.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 205.4% +218.8% to +245.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +245.5% to +272.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +272.2% to +299.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 285.6% +299.0% to +325.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +325.7% to +352.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +352.5% to +379.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 365.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 59.4% 36.3% Model-free reality across 507 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (7.73) and kurtosis (122.9).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 86.3% 43.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 56.8% 35.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (322 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 119.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 61.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 94.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-49% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +26.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +379.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -48.7%