Finance

FIGS Move Probability $19.96 +0.11 (+0.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
74.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($20.96) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
39.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.90x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±16.0%
$16.77 — $23.16

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-27.5% to -21.7%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -24.6% -21.7% to -15.8%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -15.8% to -9.9%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) -9.9% to -4.1%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) -7.0% -4.1% to +1.8%: 106 occurrences (20.9%) +1.8% to +7.7%: 77 occurrences (15.2%) +7.7% to +13.5%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) 10.6% +13.5% to +19.4%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) +19.4% to +25.3%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +25.3% to +31.1%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 28.2% +31.1% to +37.0%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +37.0% to +42.8%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +42.8% to +48.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 45.8% +48.7% to +54.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +54.6% to +60.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +60.4% to +66.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 63.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 74.8% 39.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 24.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.82) and kurtosis (14.68).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 76.0% 38.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 78.8% 47.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (306 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 67.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 56.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 48.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-17% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +23.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +66.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -27.5%