Finance

FHTX Move Probability $2.04 +0.02 (+1.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to FHTX Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
62.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.14) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
35.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.78x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±18.7%
$1.66 — $2.42

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-53.8% to -46.9%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -50.4% -46.9% to -40.1%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -40.1% to -33.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -33.3% to -26.4%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -29.8% -26.4% to -19.6%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) -19.6% to -12.7%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) -12.7% to -5.9%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) -9.3% -5.9% to +0.9%: 86 occurrences (16.9%) +0.9% to +7.8%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) +7.8% to +14.6%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) 11.2% +14.6% to +21.4%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) +21.4% to +28.3%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) +28.3% to +35.1%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) 31.7% +35.1% to +42.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +42.0% to +48.8%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +48.8% to +55.6%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 52.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 62.8% 35.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 35.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.53) and kurtosis (6.37).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 79.4% 39.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 54.5% 27.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (44 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 79.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 153.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 62.8%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+93% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +23.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -25.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +55.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -53.8%