Finance

FHB Move Probability $25.23 -0.91 (-3.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
38.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($26.50) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
22.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.69x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.2%
$23.67 — $26.80

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 510 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-23). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-14.4% to -12.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -13.5% -12.5% to -10.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -10.6% to -8.7%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -8.7% to -6.8%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) -7.8% -6.8% to -4.9%: 40 occurrences (7.8%) -4.9% to -3.0%: 72 occurrences (14.1%) -3.0% to -1.2%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) -2.1% -1.2% to +0.7%: 66 occurrences (12.9%) +0.7% to +2.6%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) +2.6% to +4.5%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) 3.6% +4.5% to +6.4%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) +6.4% to +8.3%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) +8.3% to +10.2%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) 9.3% +10.2% to +12.1%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +12.1% to +14.0%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +14.0% to +15.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 15.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 38.0% 22.5% Model-free reality across 510 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 11.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.06) and kurtosis (5.33).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 43.1% 21.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 37.1% 22.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (375 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 26.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 23.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 21.2%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -6.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +15.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -14.4%