Finance

FENC Move Probability $10.38 -0.09 (-0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
69.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($10.89) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
33.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.08x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.2%
$8.90 — $11.85

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-26.5% to -21.4%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -24.0% -21.4% to -16.3%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -16.3% to -11.1%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) -11.1% to -6.0%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) -8.5% -6.0% to -0.8%: 108 occurrences (21.3%) -0.8% to +4.3%: 106 occurrences (20.9%) +4.3% to +9.4%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) 6.9% +9.4% to +14.6%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) +14.6% to +19.7%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +19.7% to +24.8%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 22.3% +24.8% to +30.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +30.0% to +35.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +35.1% to +40.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 37.7% +40.3% to +45.4%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +45.4% to +50.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +50.5% to +55.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 53.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 69.5% 33.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 19.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.81) and kurtosis (10.65).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 73.1% 36.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 68.4% 29.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (269 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 60.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 42.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 39.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-30% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +20.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +55.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -26.5%