Finance

EWTX Move Probability $39.65 -0.09 (-0.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
80.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($41.63) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
38.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.11x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±16.5%
$33.09 — $46.21

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-56.5% to -49.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -53.1% -49.7% to -42.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -42.9% to -36.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -36.1% to -29.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -32.7% -29.3% to -22.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -22.5% to -15.8%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -15.8% to -9.0%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) -12.4% -9.0% to -2.2%: 113 occurrences (22.2%) -2.2% to +4.6%: 116 occurrences (22.8%) +4.6% to +11.4%: 101 occurrences (19.9%) 8.0% +11.4% to +18.2%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) +18.2% to +25.0%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) +25.0% to +31.8%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 28.4% +31.8% to +38.6%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +38.6% to +45.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +45.4% to +52.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 48.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 80.1% 38.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 29.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.22) and kurtosis (6.35).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 76.8% 38.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 79.5% 29.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (215 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 70.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 41.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 56.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-40% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +18.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +52.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -56.5%