Finance

EVCM Move Probability $9.21 +0.09 (+1.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
58.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($9.67) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
32.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.83x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.8%
$8.03 — $10.39

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-34.5% to -28.6%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -31.6% -28.6% to -22.8%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -22.8% to -16.9%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -16.9% to -11.0%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) -14.0% -11.0% to -5.1%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) -5.1% to +0.7%: 103 occurrences (20.3%) +0.7% to +6.6%: 116 occurrences (22.8%) 3.7% +6.6% to +12.5%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) +12.5% to +18.4%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +18.4% to +24.2%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 21.3% +24.2% to +30.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +30.1% to +36.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +36.0% to +41.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 38.9% +41.9% to +47.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +47.7% to +53.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +53.6% to +59.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 56.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 58.7% 32.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 27.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.48) and kurtosis (6.4).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 70.4% 35.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 69.7% 39.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (234 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 54.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 76.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 35.8%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+41% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +15.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -14.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +59.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -34.5%