Finance

ETON Move Probability $49.24 -0.89 (-1.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to ETON Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
75.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($51.71) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
50.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.49x
You are 1.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±15.3%
$41.72 — $56.77

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-32.3% to -26.8%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -29.5% -26.8% to -21.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -21.3% to -15.8%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -15.8% to -10.3%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) -13.0% -10.3% to -4.8%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) -4.8% to +0.7%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) +0.7% to +6.2%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) 3.4% +6.2% to +11.7%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) +11.7% to +17.2%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) +17.2% to +22.7%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) 19.9% +22.7% to +28.2%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +28.2% to +33.7%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +33.7% to +39.1%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) 36.4% +39.1% to +44.6%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +44.6% to +50.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +50.1% to +55.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 52.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 75.4% 50.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 16.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.65) and kurtosis (13.62).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 75.0% 37.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 77.8% 52.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (361 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 64.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 66.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 49.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +5.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +30.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +55.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -32.3%