Finance

EQX Move Probability $11.03 -0.02 (-0.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
71.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($11.58) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
38.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.85x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.7%
$9.52 — $12.54

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-36.0% to -30.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -33.4% -30.8% to -25.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -25.6% to -20.3%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -20.3% to -15.1%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -17.7% -15.1% to -9.9%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) -9.9% to -4.6%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) -4.6% to +0.6%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) -2.0% +0.6% to +5.8%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) +5.8% to +11.1%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +11.1% to +16.3%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) 13.7% +16.3% to +21.6%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) +21.6% to +26.8%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +26.8% to +32.0%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 29.4% +32.0% to +37.3%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +37.3% to +42.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +42.5% to +47.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 45.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 71.7% 38.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 35.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.04) and kurtosis (0.68).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 72.1% 36.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 73.3% 40.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (397 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 58.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 50.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 42.2%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +20.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +47.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -36.0%