Finance

ENVX Move Probability $2.55 +0.30 (+13.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
30.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.68) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
15.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.01x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.7%
$2.41 — $2.69

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-20.2% to -17.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -18.9% -17.6% to -15.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -15.0% to -12.4%: 8 occurrences (1.5%) -12.4% to -9.8%: 8 occurrences (1.5%) -11.1% -9.8% to -7.1%: 24 occurrences (4.6%) -7.1% to -4.5%: 58 occurrences (11.1%) -4.5% to -1.9%: 81 occurrences (15.5%) -3.2% -1.9% to +0.7%: 109 occurrences (20.9%) +0.7% to +3.3%: 109 occurrences (20.9%) +3.3% to +5.9%: 61 occurrences (11.7%) 4.6% +5.9% to +8.5%: 29 occurrences (5.6%) +8.5% to +11.2%: 13 occurrences (2.5%) +11.2% to +13.8%: 9 occurrences (1.7%) 12.5% +13.8% to +16.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +16.4% to +19.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +19.0% to +21.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 20.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 30.1% 15.0% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 16.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.08) and kurtosis (1.6).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 38.8% 19.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 31.0% 14.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (461 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 89.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 98.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 73.6%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -6.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +21.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -20.2%