Finance

ENVX Move Probability $2.55 +0.30 (+13.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
73.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.68) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
33.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.22x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±21.2%
$2.01 — $3.09

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-40.8% to -33.2%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -37.0% -33.2% to -25.6%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) -25.6% to -18.1%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -18.1% to -10.5%: 93 occurrences (18.3%) -14.3% -10.5% to -2.9%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) -2.9% to +4.7%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) +4.7% to +12.2%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) 8.5% +12.2% to +19.8%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) +19.8% to +27.4%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +27.4% to +35.0%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) 31.2% +35.0% to +42.5%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +42.5% to +50.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +50.1% to +57.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 53.9% +57.7% to +65.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +65.3% to +72.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +72.8% to +80.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 76.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 73.4% 33.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 39.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.08) and kurtosis (1.6).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 81.8% 40.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.8% 29.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (448 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 89.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 98.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 73.6%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -4.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +24.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -24.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +80.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -40.8%