Finance

ENTX Move Probability $3.02 +0.02 (+0.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
65.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($3.17) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.93x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±21.4%
$2.37 — $3.67

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-38.7% to -27.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -33.3% -27.9% to -17.2%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -17.2% to -6.5%: 132 occurrences (26.0%) -6.5% to +4.2%: 149 occurrences (29.3%) -1.2% +4.2% to +14.9%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) +14.9% to +25.6%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) +25.6% to +36.3%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) 31.0% +36.3% to +47.0%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +47.0% to +57.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +57.8% to +68.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 63.1% +68.5% to +79.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +79.2% to +89.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +89.9% to +100.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 95.2% +100.6% to +111.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +111.3% to +122.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +122.0% to +132.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 127.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 65.7% 34.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 10.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (2.98) and kurtosis (29.4).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 82.0% 41.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 64.9% 35.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (359 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 91.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 74.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 61.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-18% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +32.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +132.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -38.7%