Finance

ENOV Move Probability $20.80 +0.12 (+0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
61.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($21.84) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
26.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.29x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.0%
$18.09 — $23.51

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-29.8% to -25.9%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -27.9% -25.9% to -22.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -22.1% to -18.2%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -18.2% to -14.3%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) -16.2% -14.3% to -10.4%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) -10.4% to -6.5%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) -6.5% to -2.6%: 77 occurrences (15.2%) -4.6% -2.6% to +1.3%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) +1.3% to +5.2%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) +5.2% to +9.0%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) 7.1% +9.0% to +12.9%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +12.9% to +16.8%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +16.8% to +20.7%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) 18.8% +20.7% to +24.6%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +24.6% to +28.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +28.5% to +32.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 30.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 61.4% 26.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 30.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.21) and kurtosis (3.51).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 70.8% 35.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 61.2% 24.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (245 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 55.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 39.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 41.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-28% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -15.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +32.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -29.8%