Finance

ELTX Move Probability $1.68 +0.12 (+7.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to ELTX Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
70.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.76) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
35.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.99x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±49.3%
$0.85 — $2.51

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-66.6% to +92.4%: 489 occurrences (96.3%) 12.9% +92.4% to +251.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +251.4% to +410.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +410.4% to +569.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 490.0% +569.5% to +728.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +728.5% to +887.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +887.5% to +1046.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 967.0% +1046.5% to +1205.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1205.6% to +1364.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1364.6% to +1523.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 1444.1% +1523.6% to +1682.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1682.6% to +1841.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1841.7% to +2000.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 1921.2% +2000.7% to +2159.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +2159.7% to +2318.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +2318.8% to +2477.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 2398.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 70.1% 35.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (7.74) and kurtosis (169.83).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 92.1% 46.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.9% 39.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (288 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 209.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 66.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 61.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-68% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +35.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -19.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +2477.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -66.6%