Finance

ECX Move Probability $0.89 +0.01 (+0.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
81.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.94) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
36.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.25x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±22.6%
$0.69 — $1.09

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-69.1% to -59.0%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -64.0% -59.0% to -48.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -48.9% to -38.8%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -38.8% to -28.7%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -33.7% -28.7% to -18.6%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) -18.6% to -8.5%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) -8.5% to +1.6%: 125 occurrences (24.6%) -3.4% +1.6% to +11.7%: 114 occurrences (22.4%) +11.7% to +21.8%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) +21.8% to +31.9%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) 26.9% +31.9% to +42.0%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +42.0% to +52.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +52.1% to +62.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 57.2% +62.2% to +72.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +72.3% to +82.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +82.4% to +92.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 87.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 81.1% 36.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 40.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.66) and kurtosis (5.49).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 82.9% 41.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 87.1% 36.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (309 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 96.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 76.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 82.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-20% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +26.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -22.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +92.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -69.1%