Finance

DOCS Move Probability $33.58 +0.23 (+0.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
62.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($35.25) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.79x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.9%
$28.56 — $38.59

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-39.1% to -33.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -36.3% -33.6% to -28.0%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -28.0% to -22.5%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -22.5% to -16.9%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -19.7% -16.9% to -11.4%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -11.4% to -5.8%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) -5.8% to -0.3%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) -3.0% -0.3% to +5.3%: 93 occurrences (18.3%) +5.3% to +10.8%: 89 occurrences (17.5%) +10.8% to +16.4%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) 13.6% +16.4% to +21.9%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +21.9% to +27.5%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +27.5% to +33.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 30.2% +33.0% to +38.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +38.5% to +44.1%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +44.1% to +49.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 46.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 62.0% 34.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 10.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.38) and kurtosis (20.53).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 74.4% 37.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 65.3% 41.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (323 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 63.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 46.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 42.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-27% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +15.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +49.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -39.1%