Finance

DKNG Move Probability $18.50 -5.05 (-21.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
34.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($19.43) at least once during 4 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 4
Expiration Close Probability
17.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 4-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.95x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.6%
$17.28 — $19.73

Historical 4-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 4-day percentage returns over 517 historical windows (2024-10-10 to 2026-11-06). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-20.0% to -17.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -18.6% -17.2% to -14.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -14.4% to -11.6%: 15 occurrences (2.9%) -11.6% to -8.8%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -10.2% -8.8% to -6.0%: 41 occurrences (7.9%) -6.0% to -3.2%: 66 occurrences (12.8%) -3.2% to -0.4%: 102 occurrences (19.7%) -1.8% -0.4% to +2.4%: 113 occurrences (21.9%) +2.4% to +5.3%: 65 occurrences (12.6%) +5.3% to +8.1%: 44 occurrences (8.5%) 6.7% +8.1% to +10.9%: 23 occurrences (4.4%) +10.9% to +13.7%: 14 occurrences (2.7%) +13.7% to +16.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 15.1% +16.5% to +19.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +19.3% to +22.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +22.1% to +24.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 23.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 34.6% 17.8% Model-free reality across 517 historical 4-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 12.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.8) and kurtosis (6.76).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 46.0% 23.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 38.0% 12.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (79 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 52.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 97.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 43.7%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+85% vs baseline)

4-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +7.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (4d): +24.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (4d): -20.0%