Finance

DKNG Move Probability $18.50 -5.05 (-21.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
62.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($19.43) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.98x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.4%
$16.22 — $20.79

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 507 historical windows (2024-10-10 to 2026-11-06). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-28.8% to -25.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -27.0% -25.1% to -21.4%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -21.4% to -17.8%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -17.8% to -14.1%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) -15.9% -14.1% to -10.4%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) -10.4% to -6.7%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -6.7% to -3.0%: 50 occurrences (9.9%) -4.9% -3.0% to +0.7%: 53 occurrences (10.5%) +0.7% to +4.4%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) +4.4% to +8.1%: 51 occurrences (10.1%) 6.2% +8.1% to +11.7%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) +11.7% to +15.4%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) +15.4% to +19.1%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) 17.3% +19.1% to +22.8%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +22.8% to +26.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +26.5% to +30.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 28.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 62.9% 31.8% Model-free reality across 507 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 28.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.8) and kurtosis (6.76).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 69.3% 34.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 57.0% 20.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (79 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 52.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 97.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 43.7%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+85% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -15.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +30.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -28.8%